A Preliminary Scoring Model to Predict In-hospital Mortality Risk for Geriatric Patients with Delirium
Keywords:Delirium, In-hospital mortality risk, Geriatric, Scoring model
BACKGROUND: Elderly patients are at an increased risk of death, particularly those with altered mental status.
AIM: We aimed to develop a scoring model from simple clinical data and routine laboratory testing to aid in predicting in-hospital mortality risk for geriatric patients with delirium.
METHODS: A total of 73 hospitalized geriatric patients with delirium were included in the study. A multivariate regression analysis employed to obtain independent risk factors to predict in-hospital mortality. All patients were followed until dead or discharged from hospital. The formula of (B/SE)/lowest B/SE was used to calculate the scores for each variable with strong discrimination power to be included in scoring system.
RESULTS: A total of 25 (34.2%) of patients were death when being hospitalized. The mean age of the patients was 73.27 ± 7.8. From a total of 20 probable variables, three variables were then included in constructing the scoring model; no caregiver (p < 0.012), abnormal diastolic blood pressure (p < 0.05), and abnormal serum SGOT levels (p < 0.03). Each variable was scored as 1, following the use of formula. Total score ranges from 0 to maximum of 3. The cutoff score of ≥ 2 provided the best accuracy with sensitivity of 40% and specificity of 89.6% (p < 0.001). The probability of in-hospital mortality was 8.8%, 32.6%, 70.8%, and 92.4% for the total score of 0, 1, 2, and 3, respectively.CONCLUSION: This novel scoring system with simple examination may aid to identify geriatric patients with delirium which possess higher risk for in-hospital mortality.
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