Mathematical Modeling of the Pandemic Peak

Nadezhda Cherkunova

doi:10.3889/oamjms.2022.6717

Authors

Nadezhda Cherkunova Sayano-Shushensky Branch, Siberian Federal University, Republic of Khakassia, Russia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3889/oamjms.2022.6717

Keywords:

Coronavirus, Morbidity, Recovery rates, Susceptibility to disease

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The article examines the history and statistics of the pandemic spread.

AIM: The study aimed to develop a mathematical model reflecting the time dependence of the parameters characterizing the spread of the pandemic.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Differential equations were used to study the spread of the pandemic.

RESULTS: The case, where the coefficients of morbidity and recovery are different is considered. The patterns of change in the number of people susceptible to the disease and the number of infectious patients are revealed as a function of time. Using the developed model, the peak of the pandemic is found, i.e., the time at which the number of infectious patients will be the maximum.

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