COVID-19 Incidence Prediction Model Based on Community Behavior With Neural Networks

Authors

  • Victor Hulu Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, Universitas Prima Indonesia, Medan, Indonesia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0643-0338
  • RNS Fransiska Department of Midwifery, Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Kesehatan Senior, Medan, Indonesia
  • Widya Yanti Sihotang Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, Universitas Prima Indonesia, Medan, Indonesia
  • Suharni Sinaga Department of Midwifery, Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Kesehatan Senior, Medan, Indonesia
  • Frans Judea Samosir Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, Universitas Prima Indonesia, Medan, Indonesia
  • Astaria Br Ginting Midwifery Study Undergraduate Program, Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Kesehatan Mitra Husada Medan, Medan, Indonesia
  • Riska Wani Eka Putri Department of Nursing, Akademik Keperawatan Kesdam I/BB, Pematangsiantar, Indonesia
  • Lam Murni Br Sagala Department of Nursing, Faculty of Nursing, Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Kesehatan Murni Teguh, Medan, Indonesia
  • Yuni Vivi Santri P Department of Midwifery, Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Kesehatan Senior, Medan, Indonesia
  • Nurhamida Fithri Department of Midwifery, Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Kesehatan Senior, Medan, Indonesia
  • Faradita Wahyuni Department of Midwifery, Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Kesehatan Senior, Medan, Indonesia
  • Putranto Manalu Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, Universitas Prima Indonesia, Medan, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3889/oamjms.2022.9175

Keywords:

Behavior prediction model, COVID-19 incidence, Neural network

Abstract

Abstract

BACKGROUNDS : The COVID-19 pandemic has created a global health emergency that requires a public health response to prevent the spread of the virus.

AIM: The purpose of this study was to determine the prediction model for the incidence of COVID-19 based on community behavior.

METHODS: This study used a cross-sectional study design. The study population was all people aged >18 years in Medan City and obtained a sample of 395 people with stratified random sampling technique. The research instrument used a questionnaire in google form, then, using Microsoft Office Excel, we transferred the data from the survey to a computer program. Furthermore, the data was analyzed using the neural networks method. Then the features importance will be calculated using the Random Forest with Mean Decrease Impurity (RF-MDI) method.

RESULT: The results showed that based on the confusion matrix, the prediction value for those who did not suffer from COVID-19 was correct from negative data = 8, the correct prediction value for COVID-19 from positive data = 8. While the incorrect prediction value for machines that predicted negative results but the actual data was positive = 2, and predicts a positive result but the actual data is negative = 4. Thus, based on the neural net classification method, the accuracy value is 72%. The results of this study indicate that poor preventive behavior by the community greatly affects the spread of COVID-19 cases.

CONCLUSION: Poor community behavior, such as not limiting their interaction/contact with other people, not exercising frequently, leaving the house without keeping a safe distance, and not washing hands regularly, can all impact COVID-19 transmission in the community

Keywords: Behavior Prediction Model, COVID-19 Incidence, Neural Network

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Published

2022-04-15

How to Cite

1.
Hulu V, Fransiska R, Sihotang WY, Sinaga S, Samosir FJ, Ginting AB, Putri RWE, Sagala LMB, Santri P YV, Fithri N, Wahyuni F, Manalu P. COVID-19 Incidence Prediction Model Based on Community Behavior With Neural Networks. Open Access Maced J Med Sci [Internet]. 2022 Apr. 15 [cited 2024 Mar. 28];10(E):739-45. Available from: https://oamjms.eu/index.php/mjms/article/view/9175

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Public Health Epidemiology

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