Evaluation of the Dynamics of Breast Cancer Incidence in Kyrgyzstan: Component Analysis

Asan Chokoev; Stalbek Akhunbaev; Indira Kudaibergenova; Enverbek Soodonbekov; Gaukhar Nurtazinova; Zhansaya Telmanova; Emil Makimbetov; Nurbek Igissinov

doi:10.3889/oamjms.2022.9231

Authors

Asan Chokoev Department of Propedtherapy and Family Medicine, International Higher School of Medicine, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; Department of Science, Eurasian Institute for Cancer Research, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Stalbek Akhunbaev Department of Propedtherapy and Family Medicine, International Higher School of Medicine, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Indira Kudaibergenova Department of Science, Eurasian Institute for Cancer Research, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; Department of Oncology, Akhunbaev Kyrgyz State Medical Academy, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Enverbek Soodonbekov Department of Science, Eurasian Institute for Cancer Research, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; Department of Epidemiology and Prevention of Malignant Neoplasms, National Center for Oncology and Hematology, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Gaukhar Nurtazinova Department of ???, Central Asian Institute for Medical Research, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan; Department of Surgical Diseases with a course of Cardiothoracic and Maxillofacial Surgery, Astana Medical University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Zhansaya Telmanova Department of ???, Central Asian Institute for Medical Research, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan; Department of Surgical Diseases with a course of Cardiothoracic and Maxillofacial Surgery, Astana Medical University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan
Emil Makimbetov Department of Oncology and Radiation Therapy, Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Nurbek Igissinov Department of Science, Eurasian Institute for Cancer Research, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; Department of ???, Central Asian Institute for Medical Research, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan; Department of Surgical Diseases with a course of Cardiothoracic and Maxillofacial Surgery, Astana Medical University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3889/oamjms.2022.9231

Keywords:

Breast cancer, Incidence, Component analysis, Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

BACKGROUND: In 2020, 19.2 million cases of all types of cancer were registered worldwide, of which 11.7%, that is, 2.3 million, related to breast cancer (BC). The global burden of cancer is increasing worldwide, with the majority of new cancer cases and related deaths occurring in low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE: The study is to conduct a component analysis of the dynamics of the incidence of BC in Kyrgyzstan.

METHODS: Primary data were for registered patients with BC (International Classification of Diseases – C50) in the whole country during the period of 2003–2017. Evaluation of changes in BC incidence in the population of Kyrgyzstan was performed using component analysis according to the methodological recommendations.

RESULTS: The study period, 7850 new cases of BC were recorded. The incidence rate increased from 17.70°/₀₀₀₀ (2003) to 19.03°/₀₀₀₀ in 2017 and the overall growth was 1.34°/₀₀₀₀, including due to the age structure – ΣΔA=2.08°/0000, due to the risk of acquiring illness – ΣΔR=−0.55°/₀₀₀₀ and their combined effect – ΣΔRA=−0.19°/₀₀₀₀. The component analysis revealed that the increase in the number of patients with BC was mainly due to the growth of the population (ΔP=+71.8%), changes in its age structure (ΔA=+35.5%), and changes associated with the risk of acquiring illness (ΔR=+8.4%). The increase and, in some cases, the decrease in the number of patients in the regions of the republic is due to the influence of demographic factors and risk factors for getting sick.

CONCLUSION: The component analysis assessed the role of the influence of demographic factors and the risk of acquiring the disease on the formation of the number of patients and the incidence of BC, while geographical variability was established. The implementation of the results of this study is recommended in the management of anticancer measures for BC.

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