Log-Linear Modelling of Effect of Age and Gender on the Spread of Hepatitis B Virus Infection in Lagos State, Nigeria

Oluwole A. Odetunmibi; Adebowale O.  Adejumo; Timothy A. Anake

doi:10.3889/oamjms.2019.573

Authors

Oluwole A. Odetunmibi Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Technology, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria
Adebowale O. Adejumo Department of Statistics, Faculty of Physical Sciences, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria
Timothy A. Anake Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Technology, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3889/oamjms.2019.573

Keywords:

Hepatitis B, Log-linear, Modeling, Transmission, AIC

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The effect of age and gender on the transmission of any infectious disease can be of great important because the age at which the host contact the disease may be a determinant on the rate at which the disease will spread.

AIM: The purpose of this research is to model the significant effect of age and gender on the spread of hepatitis B virus using data collected from Lagos State, Nigeria.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: The data that was used for this research is a ten years data covering the period of 2006 to 2015, which was collected from Nigeria Institute of Medical Research (NIMR). A log-linear modelling approach was employed using R programming language software. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) method of model selection was used in selecting the best model.

RESULTS: It was discovered from the analysis that both factors (age and gender) have a significant effect on the spread of hepatitis B infection. This means that the age at which an individual is tested positive to hepatitis B virus will affect the spread of the disease. In choosing the best model among the four models that were developed, model AY: GY (age & year: gender and year) was found to be the best model.

CONCLUSION: Age and gender were found to act as a risk influencer that could have a great effect on the transmission of hepatitis B virus infections in Lagos state, Nigeria.